Pair #2042

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOP10-LIGSA26-CSMI

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Cameron Smith finish top 10?

Series: KXLIVTOP10
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10576

YES ask: 0.8400
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.5200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-CSMI

Will Cameron Smith win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 2391248

YES ask: 0.0020
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0020

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:02:01Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in LIV Golf South Africa has no logical connection to winning the Masters Tournament. These are entirely separate events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9220
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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