Pair #2041

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOUR-LIGSA26-CSMI

Will Cameron Smith win the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVTOUR
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 147273

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cameron Smith wins the LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXLIVTOP5-LIGSA26-CSMI

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Cameron Smith finish top 5?

Series: KXLIVTOP5
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8231

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cameron Smith finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:02:01Z

Reasoning: Winning the LIV Golf South Africa means finishing 1st, which is necessarily within the top 5. The reverse does not hold — top 5 does not mean winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue