Antecedent (if this happens)
KXLIVTOP5-LIGSA26-CSMI
LIV Golf South Africa: Will Cameron Smith finish top 5?
Series: KXLIVTOP5
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8231
YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Cameron Smith finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-MAST26-CSMI
Will Cameron Smith win the Masters Tournament?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 2391248
YES ask: 0.0020
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0020
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Cameron Smith wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:02:01Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 5 in LIV Golf South Africa has no logical connection to winning the Masters Tournament. These are entirely separate events.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.9720
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A