Pair #2040

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOP5-LIGSA26-CSMI

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Cameron Smith finish top 5?

Series: KXLIVTOP5
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8231

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-CSMI

Will Cameron Smith win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 2391248

YES ask: 0.0020
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0020

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:02:01Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 in LIV Golf South Africa has no logical connection to winning the Masters Tournament. These are entirely separate events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9720
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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