Pair #2039

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOP5-LIGSA26-CSMI

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Cameron Smith finish top 5?

Series: KXLIVTOP5
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8231

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXLIVTOP10-LIGSA26-CSMI

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Cameron Smith finish top 10?

Series: KXLIVTOP10
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10576

YES ask: 0.8400
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.5200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:02:01Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 (including ties) necessarily means finishing top 10 (including ties) as well. The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not guarantee top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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