Pair #2038

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOP10-LIGSA26-JNIE

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Joaquin Niemann finish top 10?

Series: KXLIVTOP10
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2881

YES ask: 0.8400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JNIE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1465

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:02:01Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in a LIV Golf event has no logical connection to winning a PGA Tour Major. These are entirely separate competitions.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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