Pair #2037

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOUR-LIGSA26-JNIE

Will Joaquin Niemann win the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVTOUR
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 109534

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Joaquin Niemann wins the LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXLIVTOP10-LIGSA26-JNIE

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Joaquin Niemann finish top 10?

Series: KXLIVTOP10
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2881

YES ask: 0.8400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Joaquin Niemann finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:02:01Z

Reasoning: Winning the LIV Golf South Africa necessarily means finishing 1st, which is within the top 10. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 10 does not mean winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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