Pair #2036

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOP10-LIGSA26-JNIE

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Joaquin Niemann finish top 10?

Series: KXLIVTOP10
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2881

YES ask: 0.8400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JNIE

Will Joaquin Niemann win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 2822725

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:02:01Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in LIV Golf South Africa has no logical connection to winning the Masters Tournament. These are entirely separate events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9810
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue