Antecedent (if this happens)
KXLIVTOP10-LIGSA26-JNIE
LIV Golf South Africa: Will Joaquin Niemann finish top 10?
Series: KXLIVTOP10
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2881
YES ask: 0.8400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.5300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Joaquin Niemann finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JNIE
Will Joaquin Niemann win the Masters Tournament?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 2822725
YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Joaquin Niemann wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:02:01Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in LIV Golf South Africa has no logical connection to winning the Masters Tournament. These are entirely separate events.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.9810
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A