Antecedent (if this happens)
KXLIVTOP5-LIGSA26-JNIE
LIV Golf South Africa: Will Joaquin Niemann finish top 5?
Series: KXLIVTOP5
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1979
YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Joaquin Niemann finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JNIE
Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?
Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1465
YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Joaquin Niemann wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:01:42Z
Reasoning: These are completely separate events. Finishing top 5 at LIV Golf South Africa (a LIV event, not a PGA major) has no logical bearing on winning a PGA Tour major, and vice versa.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0200
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A