Pair #2034

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOUR-LIGSA26-JNIE

Will Joaquin Niemann win the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVTOUR
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 109534

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Joaquin Niemann wins the LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXLIVTOP5-LIGSA26-JNIE

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Joaquin Niemann finish top 5?

Series: KXLIVTOP5
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1979

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Joaquin Niemann finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:01:42Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is within the top 5. So a win necessitates a top 5 finish. But a top 5 finish does not necessitate a win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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