Antecedent (if this happens)
KXLIVTOP5-LIGSA26-JNIE
LIV Golf South Africa: Will Joaquin Niemann finish top 5?
Series: KXLIVTOP5
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1979
YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Joaquin Niemann finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JNIE
Will Joaquin Niemann win the Masters Tournament?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 2822725
YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Joaquin Niemann wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:01:42Z
Reasoning: These are completely separate tournaments. Finishing top 5 at LIV Golf South Africa has no logical bearing on winning the Masters, and vice versa.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.9710
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A