Pair #2032

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOP5-LIGSA26-JNIE

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Joaquin Niemann finish top 5?

Series: KXLIVTOP5
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1979

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXLIVTOP10-LIGSA26-JNIE

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Joaquin Niemann finish top 10?

Series: KXLIVTOP10
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2881

YES ask: 0.8400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:01:42Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 10 as well. The reverse is not true — a top 10 finish could be positions 6-10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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