Pair #2031

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOUR-LIGSA26-ESMY

Will Elvis Smylie win the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVTOUR
Entity: Elvis Smylie
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 125144

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Elvis Smylie wins the LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXLIVTOP10-LIGSA26-ESMY

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Elvis Smylie finish top 10?

Series: KXLIVTOP10
Entity: Elvis Smylie
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10158

YES ask: 0.4000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Elvis Smylie finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:01:42Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is within the top 10. So a win necessitates a top 10 finish. But a top 10 finish does not necessitate a win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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