Pair #2029

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOP5-LIGSA26-ESMY

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Elvis Smylie finish top 5?

Series: KXLIVTOP5
Entity: Elvis Smylie
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4798

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Elvis Smylie finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXLIVTOP10-LIGSA26-ESMY

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Elvis Smylie finish top 10?

Series: KXLIVTOP10
Entity: Elvis Smylie
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10158

YES ask: 0.4000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Elvis Smylie finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:01:42Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 10 as well. The reverse is not true — a top 10 finish could be positions 6-10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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