Pair #2026

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOP5-LIGSA26-DPUI

LIV Golf South Africa: Will David Puig finish top 5?

Series: KXLIVTOP5
Entity: David Puig
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2305

YES ask: 0.7700
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If David Puig finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXLIVTOP10-LIGSA26-DPUI

LIV Golf South Africa: Will David Puig finish top 10?

Series: KXLIVTOP10
Entity: David Puig
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5624

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.4600
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If David Puig finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:01:42Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 10 as well. The reverse is not true — a top 10 finish could be positions 6-10, which would not be top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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