Antecedent (if this happens)
KXLIVTOP5-LIGSA26-DPUI
LIV Golf South Africa: Will David Puig finish top 5?
Series: KXLIVTOP5
Entity: David Puig
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2305
YES ask: 0.7700
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.2100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If David Puig finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXLIVTOP10-LIGSA26-DPUI
LIV Golf South Africa: Will David Puig finish top 10?
Series: KXLIVTOP10
Entity: David Puig
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5624
YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.4600
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If David Puig finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:01:42Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 10 as well. The reverse is not true — a top 10 finish could be positions 6-10, which would not be top 5.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.8200
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A