Antecedent (if this happens)
KXLIVTOP5-LIGSA26-DJOH
LIV Golf South Africa: Will Dustin Johnson finish top 5?
Series: KXLIVTOP5
Entity: Dustin Johnson
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8225
YES ask: 0.3000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Dustin Johnson finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-DJOH
Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?
Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Dustin Johnson
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1608
YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Dustin Johnson wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:01:25Z
Reasoning: LIV Golf South Africa is not a PGA Tour major. A top 5 finish there has no logical bearing on winning a major, and vice versa.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0700
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A