Pair #2022

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOP5-LIGSA26-DJOH

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Dustin Johnson finish top 5?

Series: KXLIVTOP5
Entity: Dustin Johnson
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8225

YES ask: 0.3000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Dustin Johnson finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-DJOH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Dustin Johnson
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1608

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Dustin Johnson wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:01:25Z

Reasoning: LIV Golf South Africa is not a PGA Tour major. A top 5 finish there has no logical bearing on winning a major, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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