Pair #2021

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOUR-LIGSA26-DJOH

Will Dustin Johnson win the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVTOUR
Entity: Dustin Johnson
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 63329

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Dustin Johnson wins the LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXLIVTOP5-LIGSA26-DJOH

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Dustin Johnson finish top 5?

Series: KXLIVTOP5
Entity: Dustin Johnson
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8225

YES ask: 0.3000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Dustin Johnson finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:01:25Z

Reasoning: If Johnson wins LIV Golf South Africa, he finishes 1st, which is necessarily top 5. The reverse does not hold — top 5 doesn't mean he won.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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