Pair #2020

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOP5-LIGSA26-DJOH

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Dustin Johnson finish top 5?

Series: KXLIVTOP5
Entity: Dustin Johnson
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8225

YES ask: 0.3000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Dustin Johnson finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-DJOH

Will Dustin Johnson win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Dustin Johnson
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 2398576

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Dustin Johnson wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:01:25Z

Reasoning: LIV Golf South Africa and the Masters are entirely separate tournaments. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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