Pair #2011

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOUR-LIGSA26-CHOW

Will Charles Howell III win the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVTOUR
Entity: Charles Howell III
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 48477

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Charles Howell III wins the LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXLIVTOP5-LIGSA26-CHOW

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Charles Howell III finish top 5?

Series: KXLIVTOP5
Entity: Charles Howell III
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 508

YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Charles Howell III finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:01:07Z

Reasoning: Winning means finishing 1st, which is inside the top 5. But finishing top 5 does not imply winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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