Pair #201

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-BOS

Will Boston Bruins win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Boston Bruins
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1735152

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Boston Bruins win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPLAYOFF-26-BOS

Will the Boston Bruins be one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers?

Series: KXNHLPLAYOFF
Entity: Boston Bruins
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 258220

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Boston Bruins are one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:03:41Z

Reasoning: A team must qualify for the playoffs to win the Stanley Cup Finals. The reverse does not hold — qualifying for the playoffs does not guarantee winning the Cup.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -99.97% (negative yield)
Cost: $2.0000
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -104.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T15:29:55Z

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