Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-26-BOS
Will Boston Bruins win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: Boston Bruins
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1735152
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Boston Bruins win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLPLAYOFF-26-BOS
Will the Boston Bruins be one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers?
Series: KXNHLPLAYOFF
Entity: Boston Bruins
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 258220
YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Boston Bruins are one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:03:41Z
Reasoning: A team must qualify for the playoffs to win the Stanley Cup Finals. The reverse does not hold — qualifying for the playoffs does not guarantee winning the Cup.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-99.97%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$2.0000
Days to maturity:
31
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
-104.19%
BELOW HURDLE