Pair #2005

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VAC26-WSIM

Will Webb Simpson lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Webb Simpson
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4022

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Webb Simpson is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-WSIM

Valspar Championship: Will Webb Simpson finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Webb Simpson
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4340

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Webb Simpson finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:01:07Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 does not guarantee a top 10 finish, and finishing top 10 does not require leading after Round 2.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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