Pair #2004

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-WSIM

Will Webb Simpson win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Webb Simpson
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10927

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Webb Simpson wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-WSIM

Valspar Championship: Will Webb Simpson finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Webb Simpson
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4340

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Webb Simpson finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:01:07Z

Reasoning: Winning means finishing 1st, which is inside the top 10. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue