Pair #2002

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-WSIM

Valspar Championship: Will Webb Simpson finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Webb Simpson
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 292

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Webb Simpson finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-WSIM

Valspar Championship: Will Webb Simpson finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Webb Simpson
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4340

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Webb Simpson finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:01:07Z

Reasoning: A top 5 finish is necessarily also a top 10 finish. The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not guarantee top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue