Pair #20

Antecedent (implies)

KXATP1RANK-26JUN30-JSIN

Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Jun 30, 2026?

Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-06-30T16:00:00Z
Volume: 1495

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Jun 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (implied)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-JSIN

Will Jannik Sinner win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 15858

YES ask: 0.7500
NO ask: 0.2900
Last: 0.7500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-16T22:50:46Z

Reasoning: Being #1 ranked on a specific date does not logically necessitate winning a Grand Slam, and winning a Grand Slam does not guarantee being #1 ranked on that date.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -85.71% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7500
Days to maturity: 105
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -89.91% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-03-17T10:16:42Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue