Pair #1999

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-WSIM

Valspar Championship: Will Webb Simpson finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Webb Simpson
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4340

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Webb Simpson finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-WSIM

Valspar Championship: Will Webb Simpson finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Webb Simpson
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12509

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Webb Simpson finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:00:51Z

Reasoning: If Simpson finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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