Pair #1996

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-WSIM

Valspar Championship: Will Webb Simpson finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Webb Simpson
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4340

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Webb Simpson finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027USA-WSIM

Webb Simpson to be the U.S. Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup

Series: KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN
Entity: Webb Simpson
Expiration: 2027-09-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 601

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Webb Simpson is the U.S. Team Captain at the 2027 Ryder Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:00:51Z

Reasoning: Being named Ryder Cup captain is entirely independent of finishing top 10 in a tournament. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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