Pair #1974

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-JDAH

Will Joel Dahmen win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Joel Dahmen
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 23404

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Joel Dahmen wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-JDAH

Valspar Championship: Will Joel Dahmen finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Joel Dahmen
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 917

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Joel Dahmen finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:41:43Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is necessarily a top 5 finish. However, finishing top 5 does not imply winning — he could finish 2nd through 5th.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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