Pair #1965

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-LGUT

Will Luke Guthrie win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Luke Guthrie
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 493

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Luke Guthrie wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-LGUT

Valspar Championship: Will Luke Guthrie make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Luke Guthrie
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 255

YES ask: 0.5700
NO ask: 0.5500
Last: 0.6200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Luke Guthrie makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:41:33Z

Reasoning: If Luke Guthrie wins the tournament, he must have made the cut to compete in the final rounds. Winning implies making the cut. The reverse is not true: making the cut does not imply winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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