Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-26-VAN
Will Vancouver Canucks win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: Vancouver Canucks
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 38954
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLWEST-26-VAN
Western Conference Finals Winner?
Series: KXNHLWEST
Entity: Vancouver Canucks
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 2714
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Vancouver Canucks wins the Western Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:03:26Z
Reasoning: To win the Stanley Cup Finals, Vancouver must have won the Western Conference Finals to reach the Finals. The reverse does not hold — winning the Western Conference Finals does not guarantee winning the Cup.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-18.27%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0100
Days to maturity:
18
Hurdle yield:
4.19%
Excess yield:
-22.46%
BELOW HURDLE