Pair #196

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-VAN

Will Vancouver Canucks win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Vancouver Canucks
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 38954

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLWEST-26-VAN

Western Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLWEST
Entity: Vancouver Canucks
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 2714

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Vancouver Canucks wins the Western Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:03:26Z

Reasoning: To win the Stanley Cup Finals, Vancouver must have won the Western Conference Finals to reach the Finals. The reverse does not hold — winning the Western Conference Finals does not guarantee winning the Cup.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -18.27% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -22.46% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T09:31:32Z

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