Pair #195

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-VAN

Will Vancouver Canucks win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Vancouver Canucks
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 38954

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPACIFIC-26-VAN

Will Vancouver Canucks win the NHL Pacific Division?

Series: KXNHLPACIFIC
Entity: Vancouver Canucks
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 731

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025-2026 NHL Pacific Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:03:26Z

Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup does not require winning the Pacific Division (wild card teams can win), and winning the Pacific Division does not guarantee winning the Cup. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -11.06% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -15.27% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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