Pair #1937

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXGRANDSLAM-CALC26-2

How many Grand Slams will Carlos Alcaraz win in 2026?

Series: KXGRANDSLAM
Entity: 2+ Grand Slam wins
Expiration: 2026-09-15T14:00:00Z
Volume: 32181

YES ask: 0.2800
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2800

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Rules

If Carlos Alcaraz wins at least 2 tennis Grand Slams in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXGRANDSLAM-JSIN26-2

How many Grand Slams will Jannik Sinner win in 2026?

Series: KXGRANDSLAM
Entity: 2+ Grand Slam wins
Expiration: 2026-09-15T14:00:00Z
Volume: 20067

YES ask: 0.5800
NO ask: 0.4600
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jannik Sinner wins at least 2 tennis Grand Slams in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:41:03Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: These are independent events about two different players. Sinner winning 2+ Grand Slams has no logical necessity relationship with Alcaraz winning 2+ Grand Slams, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -87.11% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3800 + ~$0.0283 est. fees
Days to maturity: 61
Hurdle yield: 4.32%
Excess yield: -91.43% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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