Pair #1935

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVR1LEAD-LIGSA26-PCAS

Will Paul Casey lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVR1LEAD
Entity: Paul Casey
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 663

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

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Rules

If Paul Casey is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXLIVTOUR-LIGSA26-PCAS

Will Paul Casey win the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVTOUR
Entity: Paul Casey
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1097

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Paul Casey wins the LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:41:03Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament does not require leading after Round 1; a player can win from behind. Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee winning the tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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