Pair #1925

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR17OPEBOR-OPE

Will Reilly Opelka win the Opelka vs Borges : Round Of 128 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Reilly Opelka
Expiration: 2026-03-17T18:00:00Z
Volume: 83240

YES ask: 0.6100
NO ask: 0.5000
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Reilly Opelka wins the Opelka vs Borges professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 128 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPSETWINNER-26MAR17OPEBOR-1-OPE

Will Reilly Opelka win set 1 in the Reilly Opelka vs Nuno Borges match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Reilly Opelka
Expiration: 2026-03-17T18:00:00Z
Volume: 226

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.5300
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Reilly Opelka wins set 1 in the Reilly Opelka vs Nuno Borges professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 128, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:40:48Z

Reasoning: Winning the match does not require winning set 1. Winning set 1 does not require winning the match. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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