Pair #1923

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR17SHAVAN-SHA

Will Denis Shapovalov win the Shapovalov vs Van de Zandschulp : Round Of 128 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Denis Shapovalov
Expiration: 2026-03-17T18:00:00Z
Volume: 269639

YES ask: 0.6800
NO ask: 0.3800
Last: 0.6400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denis Shapovalov wins the Shapovalov vs Van de Zandschulp professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 128 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPSETWINNER-26MAR17SHAVAN-1-SHA

Will Denis Shapovalov win set 1 in the Denis Shapovalov vs Botic Van de Zandschulp match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Denis Shapovalov
Expiration: 2026-03-17T18:00:00Z
Volume: 1908

YES ask: 0.6400
NO ask: 0.4500
Last: 0.6400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denis Shapovalov wins set 1 in the Denis Shapovalov vs Botic Van de Zandschulp professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 128, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:40:48Z

Reasoning: Winning the match does not require winning set 1 (could lose set 1 and win the match). Winning set 1 does not require winning the match. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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