Pair #1922

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR17ZHAMAN-MAN

Will Adrian Mannarino win the Zhang vs Mannarino : Round Of 128 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Adrian Mannarino
Expiration: 2026-03-17T18:00:00Z
Volume: 253750

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.5300
Last: 0.5200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adrian Mannarino wins the Zhang vs Mannarino professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 128 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPSETWINNER-26MAR17ZHAMAN-1-MAN

Will Adrian Mannarino win set 1 in the Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Adrian Mannarino
Expiration: 2026-03-17T18:00:00Z
Volume: 2193

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.5400
Last: 0.5000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adrian Mannarino wins set 1 in the Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 128, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:40:29Z

Reasoning: Winning the match does not require winning Set 1 — Mannarino could lose Set 1 and still win the match. Winning Set 1 does not guarantee winning the match. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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