Antecedent (if this happens)
KXATPMATCH-26MAR17ZHAMAN-ZHA
Will Zhizhen Zhang win the Zhang vs Mannarino : Round Of 128 match?
Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Zhizhen Zhang
Expiration: 2026-03-17T18:00:00Z
Volume: 389529
YES ask: 0.5100
NO ask: 0.5000
Last: 0.5100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Zhizhen Zhang wins the Zhang vs Mannarino professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 128 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXATPSETWINNER-26MAR17ZHAMAN-1-ZHA
Will Zhizhen Zhang win set 1 in the Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino match
Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Zhizhen Zhang
Expiration: 2026-03-17T18:00:00Z
Volume: 2475
YES ask: 0.4900
NO ask: 0.5500
Last: 0.4500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Zhizhen Zhang wins set 1 in the Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 128, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:40:29Z
Reasoning: Winning the match does not require winning Set 1 — Zhang could lose Set 1 and still win the match. Winning Set 1 does not guarantee winning the match. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.9900
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A