Pair #1920

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXFOMEN-26-DE

Will Alex de Minaur win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Alex de Minaur
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 416078

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex de Minaur wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXMOMEN-26-DE

Will Alex de Minaur win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Alex de Minaur
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 468

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex de Minaur wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:40:29Z

Reasoning: The ATP Miami Open and the French Open are separate tournaments. Winning one does not logically necessitate winning the other in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 44.32% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: +40.10% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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