Pair #1919

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-AMIN

Will Alex de Minaur win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Alex de Minaur
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3377

YES ask: 0.8800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alex de Minaur wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXMOMEN-26-DE

Will Alex de Minaur win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Alex de Minaur
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 468

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alex de Minaur wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:40:29Z

Reasoning: The ATP Miami Open is not a Grand Slam tournament. Winning Miami does not imply winning a Grand Slam, and winning a Grand Slam does not imply winning Miami. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -1.69% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -5.97% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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