Pair #1917

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-MKUC

Valspar Championship: Will Matt Kuchar make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matt Kuchar
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2672

YES ask: 0.3900
NO ask: 0.7400
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matt Kuchar makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-MKUC

Valspar Championship: Will Matt Kuchar finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matt Kuchar
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2914

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matt Kuchar finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:40:29Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not necessitate a top-10 finish. A top-10 finish does require making the cut, but the top-10 event resolves based on final position — a player could make the cut and finish outside the top 10. However, finishing top 10 does imply making the cut... wait: if Kuchar finishes top 10, he necessarily made the cut. But that direction (top10 → makecut) means top10 is antecedent and makecut is consequent. Reconsidering: finishing top 10 logically requires having made the cut first.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.7700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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