Antecedent (if this happens)
KXLIVR1LEAD-LIGSA26-DJOH
Will Dustin Johnson lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf South Africa?
Series: KXLIVR1LEAD
Entity: Dustin Johnson
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 526
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Dustin Johnson is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-DJOH
Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?
Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Dustin Johnson
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1608
YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Dustin Johnson wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:40:29Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 of a LIV event has no logical connection to winning a PGA Major. No implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0800
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A