Pair #1912

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVR1LEAD-LIGSA26-DJOH

Will Dustin Johnson lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVR1LEAD
Entity: Dustin Johnson
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 526

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Dustin Johnson is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXLIVTOUR-LIGSA26-DJOH

Will Dustin Johnson win the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVTOUR
Entity: Dustin Johnson
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 63329

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Dustin Johnson wins the LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:40:29Z

Reasoning: Winning a tournament does not require leading after Round 1 (a player can come from behind). Leading after Round 1 does not require winning the tournament. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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