Pair #19

Antecedent (implies)

KXATP1RANK-26JUN30-JSIN

Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Jun 30, 2026?

Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-06-30T16:00:00Z
Volume: 1495

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Jun 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (implied)

KXMOMEN-26-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 1754

YES ask: 0.4300
NO ask: 0.6800
Last: 0.4300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-16T22:50:46Z

Reasoning: Being #1 ranked on June 30 does not necessitate winning Miami, and winning Miami does not necessitate being #1 ranked on that date.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -71.16% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4300
Days to maturity: 105
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -75.36% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-03-17T10:16:31Z

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