Pair #1898

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVR1LEAD-LIGSA26-CSCH

Will Charl Schwartzel lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVR1LEAD
Entity: Charl Schwartzel
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2068

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Charl Schwartzel is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-CSCH

Will Charl Schwartzel win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Charl Schwartzel
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 171857

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Charl Schwartzel wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:39:49Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters has no logical connection to leading after Round 1 of the LIV Golf South Africa. These are completely separate events with no necessary relationship in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9910
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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