Pair #1894

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-SBUR

Will Sam Burns win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 10261431

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1200

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Rules

If Sam Burns wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SBUR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8708

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sam Burns wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:39:49Z

Reasoning: If Sam Burns wins the Masters, he has won a PGA Tour Major in 2026, so Event B must resolve Yes. The reverse does not hold — he could win a different major without winning the Masters.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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