Pair #189

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLEAST-26-DET

Eastern Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLEAST
Entity: Detroit Red Wings
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 100368

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Detroit Red Wings wins the Eastern Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPRES-26-DET

Will the Detroit Red Wings win the Pro Hockey President's Trophy?

Series: KXNHLPRES
Entity: Detroit Red Wings
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1890

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Detroit Red Wings wins the Pro Hockey President's Trophy, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:03:26Z

Reasoning: Winning the Eastern Conference Finals does not imply winning the President's Trophy (best regular season record), and winning the President's Trophy does not imply winning the conference finals. These are independent achievements.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -11.06% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -15.27% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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