Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-BDEC
All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 10?
Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 8434
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Bryson DeChambeau finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BDEC
Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?
Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 28452
YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Bryson DeChambeau wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:39:30Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all four majors does not require winning any of them, and winning a major does not require top-10 finishes in all four. No logical implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-49.97%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.1100
Days to maturity:
55
Hurdle yield:
4.21%
Excess yield:
-54.18%
BELOW HURDLE