Pair #1876

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-TFLE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 5236

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TFLE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17455

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:39:30Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all four majors does not require winning any of them, and winning a major does not require finishing top 10 in all four. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -47.97% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: 43
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -52.16% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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