Pair #1875

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-TFLE

Will Tommy Fleetwood win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 9028598

YES ask: 0.0020
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0020

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Rules

If Tommy Fleetwood wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TFLE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 16575

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tommy Fleetwood wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:39:30Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters is winning one of the four golf majors. If Fleetwood wins the Masters, he has won a PGA Tour Major in 2026, so B must resolve YES. The reverse does not hold — he could win a different major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0790
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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