Pair #1874

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-TFLE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 5236

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-TFLE

Will Tommy Fleetwood win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 9028598

YES ask: 0.0020
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0020

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:39:11Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters guarantees a top-10 finish at the Masters but not at all four majors. Finishing top 10 in all four does not require winning any of them. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 5.37% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9920
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: +1.16% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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