Pair #1872

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOUR-LIGSA26-JNIE

Will Joaquin Niemann win the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVTOUR
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 109534

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Joaquin Niemann wins the LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JNIE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1465

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Joaquin Niemann wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:39:11Z

Reasoning: LIV Golf South Africa is not one of the four recognized majors (Masters, PGA Championship, U.S. Open, The Open Championship). Winning it does not imply winning a major, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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