Pair #1870

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JNIE

Will Joaquin Niemann win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 2822725

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

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Rules

If Joaquin Niemann wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JNIE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1465

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Joaquin Niemann wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:39:11Z

Reasoning: If Niemann wins the Masters, he has won a major in 2026, so the major win market must resolve Yes. The reverse does not hold — he could win a different major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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